Discussion
Basically these data show that during short crop years (e.g., the drought years of the late 1990s) the initial USDA production forecast varied from 2% to 10% over the next 11 months. However, during the more recent big crop years, the initial USDA production forecast varied from 1.5% to 15%. The average revision (in absolute value terms) of the initial August production forecast years is 8% over the last ten years.
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