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U.S. Cotton Production Forecast Revisions from intial August USDA Project to the following July (Scroll Down for More Discussion)

Graph of cotton exports

Discussion

Basically these data show that during short crop years (e.g., the drought years of the late 1990s) the initial USDA production forecast varied from 2% to 10% over the next 11 months. However, during the more recent big crop years, the initial USDA production forecast varied from 1.5% to 15%. The average revision (in absolute value terms) of the initial August production forecast years is 8% over the last ten years.

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http://agecon2.tamu.edu/people/faculty/robinson-john/

Dr. John R. C. Robinson
Associate Professor
Extension Economist-Cotton Marketing
Department of Agricultural Economics
Texas A&M University
2124 TAMU
College Station, TX 77843-2124
Phone: (979) 845-8011
Fax: (979) 845-4906
Email: jrcr@tamu.edu